Terrafugia

It's now been a day of me going back and forth on an opinion of Terrafugia's Transition plane/car hybrid. Part of me thinks this is an absolutely ridiculous idea, and part of me thinks that they've met deadlines and answered some of the tougher questions, so why not? Every time I go to write that I think this won't work, something holds me back and makes me say "but wait..." I want to judge this against something else, but this ... More >>

It's now been a day of me going back and forth on an opinion of Terrafugia's Transition plane/car hybrid. Part of me thinks this is an absolutely ridiculous idea, and part of me thinks that they've met deadlines and answered some of the tougher questions, so why not? Every time I go to write that I think this won't work, something holds me back and makes me say "but wait..." I want to judge this against something else, but this is not a technology that I can forecast by analogy because it is totally new. Well, the idea isn\'t totally new, but its successful implementation will be since everyone else who has tried this has failed. <br /> What I think I've ultimately decided is that if things go exactly as planned this will work. There is a demand for this type of vehicle, even if it is just a small demand, the company's model isn't to sell a lot of these. The car that the plane becomes isn't particularly elegant and the plane won't be an ideal flying machine, but it is an acceptable compromise for the private pilot looking to get to places quickly back and forth with a bit more convenience. Also, it will be the only one of its kind and thus the only one available on the market.<br /> The Transition may be the last thing that anybody needs these days, but many times people buy what they don't need if they have the money. Many private pilots do have this money. I remember reading about the Moller Skycar as a kid and thinking it would be amazing and although this isn't exactly the same as that failed venture, it isn't so far off. The main difference is that the Skycar was really slated to be a car that could fly where as The Transition is really trying to be a plane that can drive on the road. Until artificial intelligence gets much better and the planes can fly themselves, the later will be the only possible setup for the foreseeable future.<br /> Isn't this like an Amphicar car you ask? Well, yes it kind of is. The Amphicar was a car that was half boat, half car. It was a lousy car and a lousy boat. The Transition will be a mediocre plane and a lousy car. However, the difference is that the car part of this has a utilitarian purpose where as the boat part of the Amphicar served only as pure novelty. One of my bigger concerns is that the plane will not be certified for instrument flight rules (IFR). Both pilots and planes have to be certified for IFR in order to be able to fly in reduced visibility situations. If it is only certified as a visual flight rules (VFR) plane, I think it's going to be difficult to get more serious pilots to adopt this. I know that it's possible to drive when the weather gets bad, but private pilots are flying because they love to fly, not just for the convenience (since many times it can be less convenient to fly in terms of time considerations). I'm also concerned by some of the admitted issues such as the reduced visibility that the wings cause in car mode and the problem that wind will cause when the thing is hauling the two sails on the side of it. However, the entire plane is carbon fiber and will be incredibly strong so I don't share the same road safety concerns as others do, although I know it will have some safety limitations. <br /> So what's the competition? You might look at this and say that there is no competition, but only a foolish entrepreneur uses those words. The competition is from used planes. Some customers will forgo the necessity to have the plane drive as well and will opt to purchase a much more capable aircraft. My father is a pilot and I grew up around small planes. Even at the times when there weren't rental cars at a field, I never recall having a problem getting anywhere. You could buy a very nice used Cessna 182 for $200K. This plane will haul a lot more, including 4 passengers and is a proven aircraft. The Cessna is also approved for IFR.<br /> It has been a tough 24 hours debating if this is going to work or not. If this doesn't work, it will be the closest anyone has ever come to developing a legitimate plane/car hybrid. I think the world is ready for it, but it has to be good and it has to do what it says it will. I think it will be a struggle, but there is serious potential to come out on top. I hope it does get approved because the idea itself is interesting and it is a step in the right direction for the plane/car hybrid (as crazy as that sounds). <br /> << Less

Here\'s the thing- cool isn\'t enough to get this company off the ground. It\'s a cool concept, yes. Everyone wants a car that can fly. But there are so many obstacles to this product that chances are it won\'t work, and even if they manage to get a product out, it\'s not going to be popular. <br /> First, let\'s tackle the obstacles before production. Terrafugia is trying to product a personal air vehicle that is classified as an LSA (lig... More >>

Here\'s the thing- cool isn\'t enough to get this company off the ground. It\'s a cool concept, yes. Everyone wants a car that can fly. But there are so many obstacles to this product that chances are it won\'t work, and even if they manage to get a product out, it\'s not going to be popular. <br /> First, let\'s tackle the obstacles before production. Terrafugia is trying to product a personal air vehicle that is classified as an LSA (light sport aircraft). According to the FAA, the maximum weight that the car can be is 600 kilograms. This translates to making a vehicle that\'s twice as long as the original Mini Cooper, but just as heavy. This thing has to meet the safety requirements of both ground and air regulations, too. How can something like this pass crash resistance tests? Side impact tests? This is stuff that most airplanes don\'t have to worry about. If they can make this work, it\'ll be a feat of engineering in itself, because it\'d have to use some of the most cutting edge materials to make it light and secure. <br /> Second, the product concept is inconvenient. Modern regulation today separates air from ground. This means that this vehicle will constantly have to traverse between the two. It seems to be more of a novelty item than an actual transportation vehicle. Given its limited payload and overall unattractiveness as a road vehicle, it seems unlikely that businesspeople would be willing to use this to travel. <br /> If they can get this thing working, it\'s undeniable that yes, there will be interest. But it won\'t be much. And that\'s the main thing holding me back from this. This is an incredibly niche product- people who are certified to fly, and willing to dish out nearly 200K for a vehicle that\'s inconvenient, ugly on the road, and uses a ton of gas. You have to meet all of the requirements before even considering buying this thing, and that limits it to very few people. This limited growth opportunity makes it a very uncool choice for investment.<br /> <br /> << Less

I just read about Terrafugia and had to add them to Chubby so I could write a review. They\'ve created what they call a roadable aircraft. Essentially, the wings fold up on landing and it can be used on the highway. <br /> <br />Carl Dietrich, the company\'s founder, is obviously a very smart guy and his take on the concept which has been tried numerous times already (people have always had a fascination with drivable aircraft) seem... More >>

I just read about Terrafugia and had to add them to Chubby so I could write a review. They\'ve created what they call a roadable aircraft. Essentially, the wings fold up on landing and it can be used on the highway. <br /> <br />Carl Dietrich, the company\'s founder, is obviously a very smart guy and his take on the concept which has been tried numerous times already (people have always had a fascination with drivable aircraft) seems to make some sense. In Dietrich\'s view, the Transition, their first product, is a plane that drives like a car rather than a car that takes flight. To this end, the Transition uses regular car tires vs plane tires, can be parked in a typical garage and even runs on premium gasoline rather than jet fuel. So although it does and has a lot of \'car-like\' things, Dietrich and Terrafugia\'s positioning of it as a plane that drives makes it more appealing. I\'d much rather tell people I have a plane that is also my car as that makes my car sound higher end. Telling people my car flies just doesn\'t have the same ring. Maybe it\'s just me. <br /> <br />So let\'s look at the business. Terrafugia is expected to have its carplane commercially ready by 2010 and it will go for $194,000. Even with our economic issues, there are enough rich people out there to buy one of these. I imagine it\'s the same class of people spending money on the Tesla Roadster (see my review of Tesla here - http://www.chubbybrain.com/companies/teslamotors/reviews/danielw). Granted Terrafugia doesn\'t have the green cred that Tesla does, but once people get over that and see how cool this thing is, I\'m sure they\'ll put those issues aside. Sorry for the digression. <br /> <br />So Terrafugia will probably sell several hundred of these to rich folks and that is not a bad business. Long-term, they are entering some unknown territory as they\'re essentially trying to build a new market along with a few other players who\'ve entered the fray. <br /> <br />Coolness and novelty factors aside, I do think the concept is probably still way ahead of its time, but I wish them success as Mr. Dietrich and team really appear to be true innovators. <br /> <br />One last suggestion, I\'d suggest a name change. Terrafugia sounds like someone is cursing me out in Italian and the first vehicle\'s name, The Transition, leaves little to the imagination. My $.02 on marketing. <br /> <br />I look forward to getting one. << Less